July 4, 2025

Dear Interested Readers,

 

4th of July Musings In Uncertain Times

 

If you read this letter on the 4th, I hope that it finds you sharing a great day with good friends, family, or both.  Two hundred and forty-nine years of independence are worth celebrating. Have you ever read the document that was signed that day by men who knew that they may be signing a personal death warrant? School children of my day, the mid-fifties, were familiar with the first sentence of the second paragraph:

 

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that their Creator endows them with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness…

  

Less quoted but perhaps even more significant these days is the second sentence of that second paragraph. It reads:

 

That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, –That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. 

 

“Consent of the governed…” seems important. President Trump reminds us almost daily that the outcome on November 4, 2024, the last presidential election, suggested that a majority were consenting to his leadership in the governing process under which our country has prospered, and individuals have, in unequal but gradually improving ways, been trying to pursue their personal “Safety and Happiness.” Back in the summer of 1776, the signatories of the Declaration of Independence weren’t waiting for a mid-term election to reassert and change the direction of government in their pursuit of “Safety and Happiness.” They could not wait and were acting in the moment. 

 

Since securing our independence by defeating Cornwallis at Yorktown in 1781 and ratifying our Constitution in 1788, the only time we have lost our way in pursuing the peaceful effort to move toward consensus on the journey toward Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness was on December 20, 1860. On that day, a majority of elected representatives in South Carolina, but a huge minority in the nation, voted to exit the Union at a governing convention in South Carolina. They justified their actions by saying they were acting because they were united by: 

 

… “the election of a man to the high office of President of the United States” who would “inaugurate a new policy, hostile to the South, and destructive of its beliefs and safety.” 

 

The action taken that day resulted in eleven states of the thirty-three present at that time in the Union to exit and form the Confederate States of America. In 1860, the population of the thirty-three states was 31.4 million. There were between 620,000 and 750,000 of those lives lost between December 1860 and April 1865.  Plus, it is estimated that between the Confederate and Union armies, there were at least 1.1 million who were wounded, injured, or significantly sickened as a result of the conflict. A similar impact in a nation of 330 million, our current population, would be over 7 million deaths and over 10 million wounded, injured, or sick from the war. As President Trump might say if a similar event were to occur now, “It’s unbelievable—nobody has seen anything like it.” 

 

Even in 1776, many thought armed conflict was not warranted. Jefferson acknowledged this when he wrote:

 

Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. 

 

There is no doubt in my mind that the majority of us still believe our union to be beneficial and that, ultimately, the processes and relationships described in the Constitution are still preferable in our efforts to pursue safety and happiness.  Although now, after Trump’s invasion of California, forty-four percent of Californians favor exiting the Union and becoming an independent nation. I also believe that though a majority voted for Trump, the man, as president, operating within the bounds of executive power described in the Constitution, they were not voting to usher in an autocrat or a kleptocracy. I would concede that they were voting for change through Constitutional policies pursued within the “norms” that have evolved since our establishment. I suspect that now, after the passage yesterday in the House of Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill, many of those who voted for him eight months ago would vote against him, and many of his challenging domestic policies, if the election were redone. 

 

But for a majority of the patriots of 1776, enough was enough. Before presenting a long list of grievances held against the king for his unjust treatment of the colonists, Jefferson wrote:

 

The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. 

 

There was a deep abhorrence of kings with unlimited power. A majority of colonists risked their lives to reject a cruel government and king, but even then, as now, there were some who would tolerate a king in favor of some imagined personal benefit or a reluctance to risk change.

 

The longest section of the Declaration follows Jefferson’s statement about kings. He lists twenty-seven grievances against the king. Some of the twenty-seven seem quite similar to what we see now. There were complaints related to laws passed, but not followed by the king. There were complaints about the king’s control of the judges. There were several complaints about the use of armies to control resistance within the population. There was even a complaint against his resistance to immigration:

 

He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.

 

Foreign trade was an issue:

 

For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:

 

Jefferson expressed the only logical response to the grievances.  

 

In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince, whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.

 

The last clause before the signatures suggests that those who signed knew that if their effort failed, they would be hanged or shot as traitors to the king. I would suggest that the current equivalent, which causes many Republican office holders to support the “King,” is to be “primaried,” which is usually the equivalent of political death. Jefferson wrote:

 

…with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor.

 

As you may remember, the common lore is that John Hancock, who was President of the Convention and one of the representatives from Massachusetts, exaggerated his signature so that it would be easy for the king to know he had signed the document. 

 

As we approached the Fourth, and the publication of this letter, after the House passed Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” I had a dilemma. What I wanted to express was that I knew the bill passed because  individual legislators voted to protect their self-interests by succumbing to the president’s threats to “sick” the MAGA base on them at the next election would impact less fortunate Americans for whom the pursuit of health and happiness that Jefferson wrote was their inaliable right is compromised by this travesty.

 

Lisa Mirkowski is a good example of a politician who failed the test of courage. With a few concessions added for the advantage of her constituents, she sold out, allowing the bill to pass in the Senate. How did Senator Josh Hawley find a way to forget the damage the bill would do to 20% of Missourians and their rural hospitals that he described in a recent essay in the New York Times?

 

Just after the One Big Beautiful Big passed the Senate with the tie-breaking vote of Vice President Vance, Ezra Klein discussed the bill during his podcast. He was joined by his co-founder of Vox, Matt Yglesias. In the introduction to the podcast, Klein explains all the excess verbiage about the One Big Beautiful Bill and the damage it will do to all Americans, even the wealthy ones, but especially to the poor and sick. He writes:

 

…bad policy only matters if people know about it, and a lot of people don’t. Those of us hearing about this bill — even those of us covering it — can’t keep the whole package in mind. The Times has a great list of nearly all the provisions, and a lot of them would be major policy fights on their own.

 

To further examine the potential damage of this reprehensible domestic funding bill, I decided to turn again to my AI buddy for an analysis. A summary of all the many opinion pieces I had read would require more time and work than I had given the fact that all my children with their children, and two of my siblings, and other guests were arriving for the Fourth and the big party celebrating my 80th birthday that my wife has worked so hard to make happen. 

 

I hope that what follows will help someone get a better perspective on the extent of the damage to be done, even if you, like me, as one of the financially favored minority, stand to gain a few thousand dollars from lower taxes in the short run. 

 

So I asked the Bot:

 

As we experience the 4th of July, in the aftermath of the passage of President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill, how will the “self evident” truths that Jefferson described in the Declaration of Independence, “that all men are created equal,” and that their Creator endows them with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness” be effected for American families earning less than $50,000. 

 

The Bot, as always, responded instantly, complete with emojis to my inquiry.

 

As Americans celebrate the 4th of July, it’s essential to examine how President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” (OBBB) and related policies align—or conflict—with the Declaration of Independence’s key ideals: life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, particularly for families earning under $50,000 annually.

🇺🇸 1. Life & Health: Medicaid & SNAP Cuts

• Medicaid: The OBBB proposes up to $1 trillion in cuts to Medicaid, including work requirements—meaning millions could lose health coverage. The nonpartisan CBO projects over 10 million may lose coverage by 2034, raising concerns about poor health outcomes❗cbsnews.com+15en.wikipedia.org+15whitehouse.gov+15houstonchronicle.com+2apnews.com+2vox.com+2.

• SNAP (Food Stamps): The legislation shifts up to 20% of SNAP costs to states, paired with stricter eligibility checks. Analysts warn this could kick millions of children and families off assistance, triggering growing food insecurity in already strained households.

A family under $50k sees their health access and food security directly undermined, threatening their life and well-being.

🆓 2. Liberty: Loss of Autonomy Over Basic Necessities

• Work Requirements & State Control: The Bill imposes Medicaid work requirements and hands states greater control over welfare eligibility. Families may struggle to meet new bureaucratic hurdles, leading to loss of autonomy over their own health and benefits.

• Tariffs Instead of Supports: The Bill also leans on tariffs as revenue, driving up living costs for low-income families—reducing their freedom to make life choices and eroding financial securitykiplinger.com+15apnews.com+15whitehouse.gov+15.

These measures constrain individual liberty by tying basic survival to bureaucratic compliance and higher costs.

😊 3. Pursuit of Happiness: Economic Insecurity

• Tax Cuts Skew Benefits: While the OBBB extends tax breaks (e.g., for tips and overtime), the largest benefits accrue to the wealthy and businesses. Analysts show the bottom 20–30% see income losses (~3–4%), while top earners gainhoustonchronicle.com+3time.com+3en.wikipedia.org+3.

• Increased Cost Burden: With cuts to public healthcare and food services, families face higher medical and food costs, decreasing disposable income and ability to pursue their personal goals.

• Higher Debt & Inflation Risks: The bill adds $3–4 trillion to the national debt, risking future tax hikes or cuts to public services—further constraining families under $50kaljazeera.comtheguardian.com.

Thus, while the OBBB claims to support working families, its combined effects threaten their financial stability and joy.

🧭 Alignment With Founding Ideals?

Declaration Principle	Policy Impact
Equality	Deepens inequality – social safety cuts disproportionately harm low-income families.
Unalienable Rights: Life	Health coverage losses endanger basic life and wellness.
Liberty	New requirements and costs restrict families’ freedom and choices.
Pursuit of Happiness	Economic instability from austerity measures undermines potential and wellbeing.

🔎 Summary

While the OBBB is branded “pro-family,” experts warn it’s a resounding “Robin Hood in reverse”, transferring wealth upward while dismantling the supports that enable health, freedom, and opportunity for lower-income Americansen.wikipedia.org+15time.com+15waysandmeans.house.gov+15ft.comwhitehouse.gov+1apnews.com+1.

For families under $50k, these policies could mean less healthcare, less food security, less financial freedom, and ultimately, less ability to pursue a fulfilling life—contradicting the foundational promise of America’s Independence.

 

The Bot listed the 13 references that it had used to formulate its response and then asked:

 

Would you like a breakdown of state-level impacts or potential public responses?

 

My response was, “Sure!”My faithful, and I believe truthful, servant responded:

 

Here’s how President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” (OBBB), combined with his executive orders and the interventions by DOGE, could significantly impact state budgets and public sentiment:

🏛️ State-Level Budget Impacts

1. Medicaid Cuts

• Massive federal reductions: OBBB proposes over $800 billion in Medicaid cuts, including work requirements—risking millions losing coverage by 2034 ticas.org+15apnews.com+15timesunion.com+15timesunion.com+3shvs.org+3vox.com+3.

• Economic ripple effects: The Commonwealth Fund projects these cuts could slash $113 billion in state GDP and eliminate approximately 1 million jobs nationwide by 2026 barrons.com+2publichealth.gwu.edu+2commonwealthfund.org+2.

• Example—New Mexico: Over 10% of current Medicaid recipients (≈88,000 individuals) could lose coverage; 13% of SNAP users (≈60,000 individuals) might be dropped newsfromthestates.com.

• Example—Arizona: Expected federal Medicaid loss of ~$2.1 billion per year, forcing states to raise taxes or cut services to fill gaps en.wikipedia.org+6marketwatch.com+6ticas.org+6.

2. SNAP (Food Stamps) Cuts

• Funding shifts to states: Up to 15% of SNAP costs (plus administrative costs) will be shifted to states projectbread.org.

• Economic impacts: Losses in food-related spending could result in $154 billion lower state GDP by 2029 and a $12 billion drop in state/local revenues commonwealthfund.org.

• CT and NY projections: Connecticut may have to choose between raising state revenues or cutting benefits; New York hospitals warn up to 1.5 million enrollments could vanish, costing ~$8 billion nypost.com+7timesunion.com+7apnews.com+7.

3. State-Level Preparations & Responses

• Bracing budgets: Some states (New Mexico, Vermont, Florida) are setting aside reserves; others (Virginia, Missouri) have slowed non-essential spend apnews.com.

• Politically active responses: Wisconsin rushed to pass its own budget to preserve Medicaid dollars; New York is facing congressional probes for reallocating funds amid GOP pressure vox.com+5apnews.com+5houstonchronicle.com+5.

📣 Public Response & Political Backlash

1. Polling & Public Sentiment

• Widespread opposition: According to Quinnipiac, 53% of adults oppose OBBB, including 57% of independents; 47% want Medicaid funding increased economist.com+2poll.qu.edu+2smokymountainnews.com+2.

• Bipartisan concern: Both rural and urban hospitals, workforce groups, and local officials are decrying the cuts and warning of healthcare “catastrophe” marketwatch.com.

2. Political Fallout

• Midterm messaging: Democrats are focusing 2026 campaigns on OBBB’s impacts—job loss, reduced access to care, and widening inequality washingtonpost.com.

• Intra-party dissent: Some GOP members, including Sen. Murkowski and Rep. Tillis, have voiced concern over rural hospital funding and safety-net slashes theguardian.com+15theguardian.com+15washingtonpost.com+15.

🧭 What This Means for State Governments

• Budget shortfalls ahead: States must prepare for billions in lost federal dollars, prompting decisions on whether to increase taxes, cut programs, or fund through reserves.

• Service reductions likely: Anticipated cuts threaten access to healthcare, food supports, mental health services, and public safety nets.

• Economic ripple effects: Lower household income, shrinking sales, and declining employment may continue to depress state tax revenues and constrain public investment.

✅ Summary for American Families

• Healthcare & Nutrition: Millions may lose or have reduced access to Medicaid and SNAP support.

• Economic Security: Job losses and shrinking local economies could follow as state funding dries up.

• Political Repercussions: Growing backlash from voters and politicians could shape future elections and legislation.

By mid-2025, these developments are already triggering significant state-level strategizing and mounting public concern—signaling a major shift in federal-state balance and public trust in social safety nets.

 

I hope that my fears about the damage the “Big Beautiful Bill” will do to low-income Americans and state and local budgets, based on what I read and hear, will turn out to be a false alarm like the fear we experienced as we approached Y2K twenty-five years ago. I fear that the platitudes we get from the president and Republicans in Congress will turn out to be more like the reassurances we got in 2003 about the need to begin a generation-long war because Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction.

 

On this 4th, I hope that Thomas Jefferson, John Hancock, and the other patriots who signed the Declaration of Independence 249 years ago won’t be regretting the risks to their own lives that they took to escape from the clutches of a king, only to have our modern-day version of a despotic monarch trash many of the principles that they were willing to die for. 

 

I hope that you have a very Happy Fourth and that through some miracle, this time next year, on the 250th anniversary of th declaration that: We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that their Creator endows them with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness…We might be able to say, like we did on January 1, 2000, that the One Big Beautiful Bill was just a scare, and all is well.

 

There Is Excitement At The Lake!

 

As you might have guessed from the picture that I used for today’s header, everyone who lives around Little Lake Sunapee is very excited by the arrival earlier in the week of our first loon chicks in the past four summers. This great picture was taken by one of our loon enthusiasts who happens to be a professional photographer. You might notice that the nest is at the water’s edge and not on one of the protective “artificial islands” or rafts provided by the Loon Preservation Society of New Hampshire, which has been working for fifty years to protect loons in New Hampshire. The Loon Society does have an island on our lake, which has been the nesting place until now of all the loons that have been born here since we bought our home in 2008. The idea of the rafts is to protect the nests, which are vulnerable to a variety of land-based predators. The good news gets better because, for the first time in anyone’s memory, we have another active nest with two eggs on our raft, which means that once all the eggs are hatched, we may have four loon chicks to enjoy along with all the other wildlife for the rest of the summer. If both nests produce chicks, it will be amazing.  The common wisdom about loons and small lakes is that there is almost always only one breeding pair on the lake. So much for common wisdom!

 

I am looking forward to many visitors today and for the weekend to help us enjoy the loons and celebrate my 80th birthday. If I can match my parents’ experience, I can anticipate 13-17 more summers to enjoy the loons. I hope that you will have a terrific 4th, a great weekend, and a very satisfying summer.

Be well,

Gene