May 1, 2020
Dear Interested Readers,
Too Soon For Me
Goodbye to April! We began the month with about 17 million unemployed Americans and finished the month with over 30 million, or 20% of the workforce. The sad fact is that just as we are undercounting the infected and the deceased, we are also under counting, by a lot, the unemployed. Our systems for registering for unemployment benefits are so overwhelmed that we don’t know for sure how many people are out of work. It is clear that we have never had this many people out of work, and the last time there was a higher percent of unemployed Americans was eighty years ago during the Great Depression. One study from Virginia Commonwealth University and Arizona State published on April 24th has suggested that 42% of people who were working in early February have lost income or are not working now, but it may be worse because the Marist/NPR poll for April 21-26 finds that 50% of households have lost income or suffered unemployment. Vox presents a striking graph that puts the current numbers into historical perspective.
Forty Four percent of our economy is related to small businesses. Many of the currently unemployed did work in small businesses like retail shops, beauty parlors, restaurants, bars, and health clubs. The federal guidelines encouraging people to stay at home that have eliminated nearly all public activities expired yesterday after President Trump indicated that he would leave future guidelines to state and local governments. Tom Friedman has said that to defeat the virus..:
We must be incredibly coordinated in how we respond. Different cities, different states, and different countries must follow similar paths.
Today I am apprehensive because we have been poorly coordinated at best up till now, and from today forward we will fall into two camps, those who are willing to take a chance with some hope that does not stand up to the facts of reason, and those who will continue to act prudently knowing full well that their protection from the virus has been suddenly reduced by the understandable desperation of others who are forced by economics to make a bad long shot bet. I am not alone in my fears. There is at least some hope that the majority of us will continue to practice social distancing despite the president’s fear that continued economic distress will compromise his chances for reelection.
As we know, Georgia is leading the rush to the second wave of COVID-19 infections. Their marginally legitimate Governor and Trump sycophant, Brian Kemp, is one of the nation’s leading candidates for the title of most incompetant public servant of the year. He wanted so much to please the president and the impatient minority of airheads in Georgia that he opened the state up by decree on April 24th which led to yet another remarkable Trump performance. After advocating support for those who were demonstrating to open up the economies of their states, Trump turned on Kemp when he did just that! When things are crazy, they can get really disorganized. One of the president’s greatest skills is his ability to have it both ways. Politico put it this way in their report on the Trump/Kemp fiasco:
Trump on Wednesday asserted that Kemp’s rolled-back restrictions were “in violation” of the first step of his administration’s phased plan to return to normal and revive the economic standstill.
At the same time, Trump indicated he was not so opposed to Kemp’s decision that he would ask the federal government to step in.
“He must do what he thinks is right. I want him to do what he thinks is right, but I disagree with him on what he is doing,” the president said. He argued that he felt Kemp had moved “just too soon,” and seemed not to rule out federal intervention “if I see something totally egregious, totally out of line.”
“I think it’s too soon, and I love the people,” Trump said. “I love those people that use all of those things, the spas, the beauty parlors, the barbershops, tattoo parlors, I love them. But they can wait a little bit longer, just a little bit — not much — because safety has to predominate.”
There was an OP ED piece in yesterday’s New York Times written by Keren Landman, MD an ID doctor who lives in Georgia entitled “Georgia Went First. And It Screwed Up. Here’s what other states can learn from our inept reopening.” She points out that Kemp put Georgia at risk because the state had not adequately completed the “stage 1” criteria for reopening. Their data systems are inadequate and probably inaccurate because they have not invested in the data capabilities to manage information in a timely and accurate manner. Landman suggests that Georgians will suffer as the nation’s “canary in the coal mine.” She writes:
From my vantage point as a doctor, an epidemiologist, a journalist and a native Georgian, it’s clear that if there’s anything to be gained from this moment’s anguish, it is the opportunity to help others avoid our mistakes.
She makes four good points:
- Don’t underestimate the importance of good data. Despite all the warnings in the news media, it can be tempting to cherry-pick evidence that supports a move to reopen. Governor Kemp said his decision was based on “favorable data” and enhanced testing, but the more we looked, the more questionable that data looked: fluctuations among data curves, some of which conflicted with each other; weeklong lags in Georgia’s reporting of Covid-19 cases and deaths.
- Don’t punish small businesses by treating their decision to reopen — or not — as a purity test. Somehow, we’ve reached the point where caring about public health has become a progressive issue, while the nation’s economy has become a conservative one. This division is false; no one should have to choose between financial annihilation and helping to spread a deadly disease. But thanks to unforgivable failures of political leadership, business owners in Georgia are bearing the burden of that choice — and the same will happen in every state that follows our lead.
- We have dangerous tensions between our state and local governments. The governor’s decision came as a surprise to our mayors, who were not consulted or informed about his executive order in advance — and were barred by one of its clauses from issuing local orders more or less restrictive than his…Fortunately, some other states with imminent plans to reopen, like neighboring Tennessee, have carved out exceptions or given leeway to local governments. But governors, especially Republicans who have historically clashed with Democratic mayors, may be lured into using the reopening as leverage. Don’t. The people who suffer most from the results of uncoordinated public health efforts are often the people who have the least. Save the peevishness for a lower-stakes crisis.
- Success is up to us. Georgia went first. Some of our confusion and fears were inevitable — but the governor exacerbated those with his poor planning, and he may have set us up for a relapse. Inevitably, other governors will make other mistakes, even if they learn from Georgia’s mistakes.
The sad truth is that it all comes down to the individual since a significant number of our elected leaders are failing us. She finishes on that note:
But as we — citizens, business owners and local politicians — are learning, that doesn’t mean we will fail. As other states reopen — and they will — saving ourselves and one another will be up to us.
A Vox article from mid April suggests that a majority of Americans will try to act prudently. A more precise report from this week based on a well conducted survey suggests that 73% of Americans want to continue social distancing even if it leads to further economic losses. Yesterday’s LA Times reports an uptick in COVID-19 cases and deaths. Some have speculated that it may be related to the crowded beaches in Southern California. Governor Newsom has ordered closing of the Orange County beaches and it is obvious that he is fighting hard to prevent Southern California from becoming the next COVID-19 epicenter. Need I say more to explain my apprehension about going back to gathering with friends at local bars and restaurants or getting my haircut?
The past six weeks are a blur for most of us. It is hard to remember the details when so many things have happened over such a short period of time. On March 14 after the NBA had cancelled its season, Tom Hanks had reported that he and his wife had tested positive for COVID-19, and the stock market had crashed, the president said:
When he made that announcement there were 2726 confirmed cases, and we had sustained 54 deaths. On March 15th he said:
“This is a very contagious virus. It’s incredible. But it’s something that we have tremendous control over.”
On March 16th the president announced social distancing guidelines:
PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: Therefore, my administration is recommending that all Americans, including the young and healthy, work to engage in schooling from home when possible, avoid gathering in groups of more than 10 people, avoid discretionary travel and avoid eating and drinking at bars, restaurants and public food courts.
On March 17th when there were 6,421 confirmed cases and 108 reported deaths, he said:
“I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic.”
I recommend that you remind yourself of the road we have traveled and the commentary the president has offered as our guide. The events and his inane and inconsistent pronouncements through March 31 are summarized in an incredible article that the Washington Post published a month ago entitled, “From ‘It’s going to disappear’ to ‘WE WILL WIN THIS WAR’: How the president’s response to the coronavirus has changed since January.”
As a further aid to your memory of the road we have traveled, I recommend “260,000 Words, Full of Self-Praise, From Trump on the Virus” which was written by Jeremy W. Peters, Elaina Plott and Maggie Haberman and published on April 26 in the New York Times. The combination of the quotes in the Washington Post and in the Times article is a powerful presentation of the narcissistic psychopathology of this president. I urge you to at least scan both articles. They have documented his lies and inconsistencies.
At 260,000 words and counting, enough to fill a 700-page book, Mr. Trump has been writing his own history of the virus, one that is favorable to him, settles scores and is often at odds with the facts. There were at least 130 examples of falsehoods or exaggerations. He ignored his long public record of making breezy claims about the virus when he said on March 17, “I’ve felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic.” He falsely described the Obama administration’s response to the H1N1 virus, saying on April 6, “It was like they didn’t even know it was here.”
The Times article comments on how infrequently and how awkwardly the president has expressed empathy for the sick, the dying, or the exhausted care givers or “essential workers” who have shouldered the burden of “the war” compared to his concern about himself or the economy.
With Mr. Trump, there is no such subtlety. “The level of self-congratulations that occurs every day at these press conferences is unprecedented,” Dr. Murphy added.
The president, often criticized as lacking empathy, does occasionally express it. The Times found about 60 instances in the analysis. His usage of unifying language was fleeting at first, rarely more than a terse sentence about the “tremendous spirit” of Americans.
His praise of health care workers who put themselves at risk every day — “these are our warriors” — and his admiration for the resilience of the American people have become somewhat more common, especially in his prepared remarks at the opening of each briefing.
The article ends:
But his laments about the virus’s economic toll — the damage it has caused “probably the best economy in the history of the world” — are far more common than remarks about the human toll.
“It’s the things that are not there, the things he isn’t doing,” said Roderick P. Hart, a professor at the University of Texas at Austin who is an expert in political speech. “It’s what’s not there — that sense of, ‘I’m part of the human condition,’ the ability to empathize with the downtrodden and the afflicted — that’s what’s so important.”
Trust is hard won and easily lost. The president is at risk of losing all but the small percentage of crazy people who we see on the evening news as they march around their state capitals brandishing their weapons, demanding the right to return to work. As noted by Henry Olsen in yesterday’s Washington Post the president is losing ground everywhere in the polls. It seems to me that through his obvious incompetence, self serving lies, and his actions that suggest that he would risk lives to improve the economy in hopes of salvaging his reelection, he is proving once again what Abraham Lincoln may or may not have said, but surely knew:
You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.
My hope lies in the good sense of ordinary people. I am hoping that most of us will decide that just because we can get a haircut and go to dinner we won’t. I am hoping that he is fooling fewer and fewer of the people who have believed in him and continue to enable him. It is my hope that if social distancing is no longer mandated, it will still be practiced by the majority of thoughtful Americans until the data shows that we can avoid a second peak. This pandemic will eventually end either by a “natural” ebbing of the process, through the discovery of some combination of potent antivirals, or by the miraculous development of a vaccine. Your job and mine is not to throw away the sacrifices of so many medical professionals around the planet like Dr. Li Wenliang of Wuhan, China who died of the virus on February 7, a little more than a month after he had tried to warn the world with a post on the Internet on December 30, 20019:
“A new coronavirus infection has been confirmed and its type is being identified. Inform all family and relatives to be on guard.”
We should not forget the sacrifices of our own healthcare heroes like Dr. Frank Gabrin who died on March 31 with the distinction of being the first American physician to die of a COVID-19 infection. Dr. Gabrin was an experienced ER physician who worked at East Orange General Hospital in New Jersey and Saint John’s Episcopal Hospital in Queens. It was reported that because of PPE shortages he had used the same mask for four days. Ironically, he had published a book in 2013 entitled Back From Burnout: Seven Steps to Healing from Compassion Fatigue and Rediscovering (Y)our Heart of Care. According to Johns Hopkins data on March 31, the day he died, there were 188,000 cases and 4,000 deaths. The Guardian newspaper is trying to document the deaths of healthcare professionals like Dr. Gabin.
During the past month of continuing concern and suffering from the COVID-19 pandemic as the number of lives lost climb past 50,000 toward who knows what depressing number, I have developed the idea that although we had inadequate PPE, too few ventilators, and woefully inadequate testing, we did have an abundant supply of committed people like Dr. Gabrin and hundreds of thousands of other healthcare professionals and other essential servants of the public like first responders, bus drivers, and grocery store workers who were prepared and were willing to answer the call to serve their communities. We were blessed to be well stocked with people who were committed to service. Those committed people took risks and used their energy and commitment to close the gap between the lack of preparedness of our government and the challenges of an enemy that we had never seen before. Are we going to throw away their efforts, and put them at risk of having to do it all over again just so some clown in Georgia can reopen his tattoo parlor, or someone in Florida can go to the beach with his buddies?
I have no way to imagine the stress of trying to work in an EW that is overloaded with COVID patients in every room and lying on gurneys in the hallways. The virus takes its toll in many ways as was demonstrated this week when we heard of the tragic death of Dr. Lorna Breen. The event of her death will be an even greater loss if the impatience of a minority of Americans coupled with the desperate desire for reelection of a president who should be removed from office because of his gross negligence and disregard for the law and norms of behavior adds up to an avoidable “second surge” of the virus. Rushing back to business as usual rather than waiting for the time when we are really ready while using our collective economic strength to support those most hurt by the economic consequences of social distancing isn’t worth it. Period.
As of 8:32 PM yesterday, April 30th, there were 1,069,50 confirmed cases in America and at least 63,039 deaths, In our desperation to wish it all away, are we impervious to the meaning of those numbers? Please click on the link and use your cursor to examine the numbers of cases and deaths in each state. What does it mean to “flatten the curve” in one state that is still having thousands of new cases a day? There will be thousands of lives lost as we “descend” the flattened curves. Look west and south and think about the urban areas that have not had the New York experience. What is going to happen in Atlanta, Houston, St. Louis, and Phoenix as everybody heads back to restaurants and shopping centers?
There is no question that things could have been worse over the last six weeks and through the sacrifices of committed healthcare professionals we have saved lives despite our lack of effective leadership. No matter what the magical self serving thinking of the president is we are not really ready for the next step. There is also no question that we are still vulnerable to things getting worse. Let’s not make flattening the second curve our next national exercise of sacrifice. Let’s persist with what has worked until we really have the testing, the PPE, and case follow up necessary to reduce the risk that we will have to ask our essential providers to do it all over again.
A New Face In Town
My usual walk takes me past the Maple Hill Farm Inn B and B. I don’t know the fellow who owns it very well, but I think he escaped from a life of finance in New York City, and now seems to have a lot of fun riding his tractor and working hard doing all the things necessary to keep things going in a positive direction. He has chickens, pigs, and cows. He offers his guests a real home grown country breakfast. Every now and then we have a little conversation, but most of the time I just walk by and wave because he looks too busy to interrupt.
Since the coronavirus has shut everything down, my guess is that he has no guests to consume his eggs, pork, and steaks. A few weeks ago I noticed a new sign that said he had fresh eggs for sale. I have an emotional attachment to his cows. He has a huge bull named Sir Loin. Sir Loin’s mate is Elizabeef. There was also a heifer named Patty. I assumed that her full name was Hamburger Patty. Sir Loin and Elizabeef have produced a few calves over the past few years that I have enjoyed watching grow. It’s sort of sad because I know that just about the time I get to know them well they will be gone.
A few days after the egg sign went up I noticed a new sign advertising “grass fed” ground beef for sale. I rounded the corner and checked out the field where the cows live. There was no Patty in sight. I had a little sense of sadness and loss as I put two and two together. No Patty and a new sign about hamburger for sale adds up to an obvious conclusion. I also noticed that Elizabeef looked like she had put on a little weight. She looked uncomfortably wide.
About a week ago, not long after the hamburger sign went up, I rounded the corner from Newport Road on to Otterville Road, which is where the cows live, and to my surprise there was my new neighbor! I have not learned his/her name yet. Most of the time he/she is close to Mom and often feeding, but earlier this week I got a good shot with my iPhone which you can see in today’s header. A calf is a lovely thing, and a sure sign of spring.
Be well! Practice social distancing. Wash your hands frequently. Don’t touch your face. Cover your cough. Stay home unless you are an essential provider. Follow the advice of our experts. Assist your neighbor when there is a need you can meet. Demand leadership that is thoughtful, truthful, capable, and inclusive. Let me hear from you often, and don’t let anything keep you from doing the good that you can do every day,
Gene
